VolQuest.com - Rivals.com Daily NCAA Tournament Tracker

March 2, 2009

Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Basketball

If Monday's schedule was a big letdown after a great weekend, Tuesday makes up for it.

The game of the day is in the ACC, with Duke playing host to Florida State in a contest that will have a huge bearing on the conference title race ? and on the seedings in the NCAA tournament. Maryland plays host to Wake Forest in another huge ACC game, with the Terps one big win away from locking up an NCAA bid. There also are intriguing games in the Big 12, Mountain West and Big East.

We will update our "Tournament Tracker" daily as we count down toward Selection Sunday. We take a look at the day's best game and explain how it will impact the NCAA field, as well as spotlight the key game involving bubble teams.

Note: All RPI figures from collegerpi.com

NCAA TOURNAMENT TRACKER

TUESDAY'S GAME OF THE DAY

Florida State at Duke, 8 p.m., ACC syndication/ESPN FullCourt: Duke is aiming for a No. 2 seed and to play its first- and second-round NCAA games in Greensboro, N.C.; a victory over FSU will put the Blue Devils that much closer to both goals. The Seminoles, meanwhile, can move into a tie for second in the ACC with a win, which also makes a No. 3 NCAA seed a possibility. Duke won by eight in Tallahassee in early January. FSU's upset hopes rest on whether someone other than Toney Douglas can provide consistent offense.

BUBBLE WATCH GAME OF THE DAY
Kansas State at Oklahoma State, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2: A weak non-conference schedule makes this an important game for K-State, which has won nine of its past 11. But Oklahoma State also is making a late-season push, having won five in a row. Oklahoma State's at-large r?m?s better than K-State's, thanks to a much tougher non-conference schedule. Oklahoma State finishes its regular season at Oklahoma, so it almost certainly needs to win this if it wants to finish better than .500 in the Big 12.

NCAA TOURNEY LOCKS (29)
ACC (5): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier
Big 12 (4): Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Big East (6): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (3): Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah
Pac-10 (4): Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (1): LSU
West Coast (1): Gonzaga
ONE-BID LEAGUES REGARDLESS (16)
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, Summit, Sun Belt.

KEY RPIs FOR TODAY
Auburn: 78th
Cincinnati: 53rd
Georgetown: 40th
Kansas State: 72nd
Maryland: 52nd
New Mexico: 70th
Ohio State: 42nd
Oklahoma State: 31st

OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST

Cincinnati at USF
Time, TV: 7 p.m., ESPNU
A must-win game for the Bearcats, who finish with Seton Hall at home and could end up 10-8 in the Big East. Even then, they likely would need at least one win in the league tournament.

Georgetown at St. John's
Time, TV: 7:30 p.m., Big East syndication/MASN/MSG/Altitude/ESPN FullCourt
A must-win game for the Hoyas if they want to stay on the bubble. They should finish 8-10 in the Big East, which means they'll need to do some damage in the Big East tournament if they're serious about earning a bid.

Auburn at Alabama
Time, TV: 9 p.m., ESPN
If Auburn wins out (which would put the Tigers at 10-6 in the league) and gets to the SEC tournament final, the Tigers might have a shot at an at-large berth. Might.

Ohio State at Iowa
Time, TV: 9 p.m., Big Ten Network
A big game for the Buckeyes, who need a win to stay on top of the bubble. They've lost four of their past five.

Wake Forest at Maryland
Time, TV: 9 p.m., Comcast SportsNet Mid-Atlantic/Fox Sports South/Sun Sports
A big game for both. Wake still is trying to get a No. 2 seed, while the Terps basically can lock up a bid with a win over the Demon Deacons.

Utah at New Mexico
Time, TV: 9 p.m., The mtn.
New Mexico trails league-leading Utah by a game in the Mountain West standings. The Lobos have won six of their past seven, but they desperately need a marquee win ? and beating the Utes would be a marquee win. Utah has won eight of its past nine and beat the Lobos by just a point at home in late January.

Conference tournament games

Top seeds in the Big South (Radford, at home against High Point) and the Ohio Valley (UT Martin, at home against Tennessee Tech) open conference tournament play. Neither has any hope for an NCAA at-large berth, but both are guaranteed NIT bids if they falter in their league tourneys. Radford beat High Point by 13 and by five in their regular-season meetings, while UT Martin beat Tennessee Tech by nine and by 11.

HOW BUBBLE TEAMS PERFORMED SATURDAY

LONG SHOT FOR A BID

Baylor: The Bears are done after losing at Texas on Monday night. Well, done unless they win the Big 12 tournament. RPI: 63rd. Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-10. Record vs. RPI top 100: 6-10.

Davidson: The Wildcats kept their slim ? very slim ? chances for an at-large bid alive with a win over Elon. The Wildcats are the top seed in the Southern Conference tournament and better win it if they want to get to the NCAAs because their at-large r?m?sn't impressive. Davidson played a tough non-conference schedule but has just one win of note, against West Virginia. RPI: 67th. Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-4. Record vs. RPI top 100: 1-4.

Notre Dame: The Irish are another team that only has hope of getting into the NCAA tournament by winning its league tourney. Notre Dame lost at Villanova on Monday to effectively extinguish its at-large hopes. RPI: 73rd. Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-11. Record vs. RPI top 100: 4-12.