Less than a week before the 2023 college football season begins next Saturday, ESPN released its latest round of rankings and predictions according to its Football Power Index.
Tennessee—which was ranked No. 10 and No. 12 in the preseason USA TODAY/AFCA Coaches Poll and the Associated Press Top 25, respectively—was ranked 12th per the FPI with a win total of 8.1 games with 4.0 losses.
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Developed in 2013, the FPI is a rating system that measures college football teams' strengths and predicts their game and overall season outcomes.
In the initial FPI release in April, Tennessee debuted at No. 12 and was predicted to finished with 8.2 wins and 3.9 losses, a slight change from where the Vols are currently projected.
Tennessee has a convincing 92.9% chance to reach a bowl game (six wins) for the third-straight season but just a 4.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
The Vols chances of winning the SEC East is 9.1% and 2.7% to win the conference championship game in December.
MORE FROM VOLREPORT: Who's high, who's low: How notable AP voters ranked Tennessee football
Tennessee was the fourth highest ranked team from the SEC behind No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 LSU. Vols' league opponents Florida (18) and Texas A&M (19) also made the top 25 with Kentucky finishing just outside at No. 28 overall.
Alabama and Georgia were the favorites to play in the SEC title game with the Bulldogs holding a 42.9% chance to win for third time in seven years.
FPI game-by-game outlook
Coming off of an 11-2 season in 2022, Tennessee is heavily favored in six games, including its Week 1 bout with Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on Sept. 2 and its home opener vs. Austin Peay the following week.
The Vols are expected to be unbeaten when they face their first test against Florida at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville on Sept. 16. Tennessee hasn't beaten the Gators on the road since 2003 but have a nearly 50% chance to win.
MORE FROM VOLREPORT: Tennessee tabbed top 10 program in AP Top 25 poll era
Conference homes games against South Carolina and Texas A&M give the Vols and edge while a road tilt with Alabama and a late November clash with two-time defending national champion Georgia appears more difficult.
A look back at FPI predictions
The FPI has had a consistent track record predicting Tennessee's final record in recent years.
In 2019, the Vols were projected to win 7.6 games in Jeremy Pruitt's second season and ended up finishing just past that mark at 8-5.
A year later against a shortened, conference-only schedule in 2020, Tennessee was predicted to go 4-6 before the Vols won just three games and lost seven.
MORE FROM VOLREPORT: Tennessee football lands in the top 10 of ESPN SP+ preseason rankings
In Josh Heupel's first season in 2021, Tennessee was predicted to make a bowl game with just over six wins and won seven, ending its season in a Music City Bowl loss to Purdue to finish 7-6.
Tennessee's 2023 campaign is where FPI has been the most off. It projected the Vols to win 7.1 games and they exceeded expectations with 11 wins—including three games they had a 40% chance or lower.
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