Tennessee did what it’s done the entire 2021 season this weekend, handling its business in workmanlike fashion. The Vols overcame an early one-run deficit to win the opener in the Knoxville Super Regional over LSU before dominating the Tigers, 15-6, in game two to punch their ticket to the College World Series.
Let’s take a look back at the milestone weekend for Tennessee baseball while looking ahead to Omaha.
Three Observations
1 —Vols stay unbeaten in the NCAA Tournament— Tennessee miraculously escaped its Knoxville Regional opener against Wright State thanks to Drew Gilbert’s heroics. Since then, the Vols haven’t lost or trailed after the sixth inning and are 4-0 in the NCAA Tournament.
While Tennessee had a pair of two run wins against Liberty and LSU it didn't ever feel like the Vols were going to lose at any time in their last four games.
Looking back at it, that’s really impressive for a team and a program without much NCAA Tournament experience. This team has done a great job of always staying locked in to the task at hand and that’s why they haven’t lost a series to a team outside the top five all season.
Even with every Tennessee player playing on a stage they never had, this team had complete confidence in themselves and played within themselves.
“Even though it was a nice celebration out there after winning today, for some reason, it was expected,” Tennessee left fielder Evan Russell said.
Looking forward, playing the minimum number of games to get to Omaha should prove beneficial especially to Tennessee’s pitchers.
Outside of Sean Hunley in the regional, Tennessee hasn’t had to over tax any of its pitchers. That should help the Vols in Omaha as they can lean on the arms of their core six pitchers.
2 —Tennessee’s core six pitchers are really solid— This isn’t exactly a new revelation from the Super Regional but a culmination of a month to six weeks of really strong pitching from Tennessee starter’s Chad Dallas, Blade Tidwell and Will Heflin as well as Vols’ relievers Sean Hunley, Camden Sewell and Redmond Walsh.
After a disappointing start against Wright State, Dallas responded in a big way with six strong innings against LSU, allowing just one earned run while striking out 12. In two starts against the Tigers this year, Dallas has allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings while striking out 24.
All of Tennessee’s pitchers will benefit from playing at the larger T.D. Ameritrade Park in Omaha for the rest of the season but none more than Dallas who has given up 20 homers this season. Dallas has been nearly impossible to score on other than the long ball.
Tidwell’s six earned runs in seven innings against LSU don’t look great but the talented freshman out dueled LSU ace Landon Marceaux and fought through poor pitching conditions at Lindsey Nelson Stadium. Four of the six earned runs Tidwell gave up also came after Tennessee opened a nine run lead.
Will Heflin didn’t get to pitch against the Tigers but the senior has been as consistent as they come. The left hander certainly has his limitations and struggles going through a lineup a third time but he’s been rock solid the first two times through the order and hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in a SEC game.
Sean Hunley’s poise and effectiveness on the mound is no surprise to anyone at this point but the senior did it again in the opener against LSU, pitching three scoreless innings and stranding the tying run at second in the ninth inning.
The Mt. Juliet, Tennessee native has thrown 22.2 innings more than anyone else in Tennessee’s bullpen this season.
Junior Camden Sewell has thrown the second most innings out of the bullpen and has quietly been dominant the second half of the season. In the last five SEC series and the postseason, Sewell has given up just one earned run in 21.1 innings pitched. That’s good for an astounding 0.42 ERA.
Sewell effectiveness isn’t his only positive trait as he has great role flexibility, serving as a fourth starter, long reliever or closer.
Senior Redmond Walsh had a disastrous start to SEC play, blowing saves each of the first two weekends. But since giving up on a cutter he was implementing the lefty’s changeup has gone back to being an effective put out pitch and pitch Walsh can throw for a strike early in counts.
The results have been Walsh looking like the pitcher he was his first three seasons in Knoxville. Since his disastrous start to SEC play, Walsh has a 1.69 ERA.
Tennessee may not have the biggest name pitchers in the SEC or country but they do have six incredibly solid pitchers who go out there and just get outs. It's a massive reason why Tennessee is still playing.
3 —Rucker and Beck bounce back in a big way— Jake Rucker and Jordan Beck are perhaps the two most talented hitters on a Tennessee team full of them.
In the regional both struggled with Beck recording just one hit while Rucker recorded two.
From his very first at-bat you could tell Beck looked more comfortable at the plate as the sophomore right fielder roped a double to left field. The hard contact would continue all weekend with Beck going 5-for-9 at the plate and hitting the dagger three run home run that put Tennessee up by eight in Sunday’s CWS clinching win.
Rucker is one of the most overlooked players at Tennessee and in the SEC and he showed it this weekend. The junior third baseman went 5-of-9 at the plate and hit two home runs in the first three innings of Sunday’s game.
The Tennessee native doesn’t have the power of the some of the SEC’s three hole hitters— Rucker has nine home runs and hadn’t hit one since May 1st before Sunday— but gets on base and drives in runs at a high clip, recording a .331/.395/.502 slash line and 55 RBIs.
Beck and Rucker’s quick turn around represents a main reason why this team has been successful. After the poor starts from Connor Pavolony and Max Ferguson at the plate, Tennessee’s batters don’t seem to slump for long.
Sure, players will have a bad weekend or maybe two bad weekends for guys like Drew Gilbert and Beck who were facing SEC pitching for the first time, but most Tennessee players have been able to not let slumps linger and when you have nine good hitters in the lineup that’s a good recipe for success
“I think toughness,” Vitello said of his team’s ability to avoid long slumps. “You know, the weight room is (located) behind us. I think toughness and willing to accept hard times was a part of that, because there wasn't some great sunshine and rainbows—(that’s the description Evan Russell) used. I'll say that, first of all, we got video of him trying to catch as a freshman. So, if anyone wants to see that, there's definitely no sunshine and rainbows going on for that. But, it's been a grind. And there's some guys on our club with scars from a lot of tough losses and a lot of bitter pills to swallow. So, when personal success doesn't come, I think these guys are able to forge on.”
Two Questions
1. Who on the mound can Tennessee rely on after the core six?
As outlined above, Tennessee has to feel really good about its top six pitchers heading into Omaha, but like the SEC Tournament and regional there’s a very real chance the Vols will have to lean on pitchers outside of that group.
So who can Tennessee rely on?
Kirby Connell was the Vols’ second best bullpen arm behind Hunley the first few weeks of SEC play but has struggled since. Connell’s 3.00 ERA is still solid but a bit misleading as the left hander has allowed an abundance of inherited runs to score. I still think Connell is likely the fourth arm Tennessee will turn to out of the bullpen but the Vols aren’t as eager to give him multiple innings as they did earlier in the season.
LHP Will Mabrey is another guy that won’t get multiple innings but is a situational pitcher that has done a good job of getting out of a few jams this season.
Mark McLaughlin (34.1 IP) and Jason Rackers (10.2 IP) are the next two arms that could see time as both pitched well in the SEC Tournament title against Arkansas.
One thing that works in Tennessee’s favor and could limit the potential need for heavy innings from anyone outside of the core six is how deep its starters get into games. It has been a massive rarity for any UT pitcher to get run from a game early and that has been hugely beneficial for saving the bullpen.
Still, Tennessee will likely have to use at least one if not more of these pitchers in the double elimination portion of the College World Series. Whether the Big Orange make it to the final two could depend on how effective Connell, Rackers, McLaughlin and Mabrey can be.
2. What’s Tennessee’s path to the title game look like?
Let’s start with the format for the eight team College World Series.
The eight teams are divided into two four team sides and each side of the bracket plays a double elimination tournament just like the regional. The winners of each side of the bracket will play a best of three series for the National Championship.
On the other side of the bracket all four teams are set with No. 4 Vanderbilt, No. 5 Arizona, No. 9 Stanford and North Carolina State all punching their ticket to Omaha.
On Tennessee's side of the bracket there is still some uncertainty. No. 2 Texas has locked its spot in the College World Series but the final two spots remain as No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 7 Mississippi State play Monday night for the chance to play Texas in the first round while Virginia will to play Tennessee in game one.
The Vols’ side of the bracket was definitively the easier one before North Carolina State upset No. 1 Arkansas, they are probably pretty even now.
Still, I think Tennessee is the best team in its side of the bracket and the first round matchup with a team that wasn’t a top 16 team should be one of the more favorable ones.
One Prediction
Tennessee makes it to the College World Series final
I’ve gone back-and-forth on this a lot and it’s hard to predict an eight team tournament, especially before the final field is set.
I think Tennessee is definitely one of the two or three best teams in the field. I feel confident that the Vols will make it to the final four and I think there’s a very real possibility that Tennessee can win it all.
I think the likelihood of Tennessee losing in the semifinal and winning it all is probably pretty even so I’m going to meet in the middle and say the Vols lose in the title game.
One final thought— and maybe they’ll lose to Mississippi State today and make me look stupid— but I’m really high on Notre Dame and think they were criminally under seeded. I think it would be more beneficial for Tennessee to see Mississippi State on its side instead of the Irish, especially in a double elimination tournament when you can get past Mississippi State’s four really good pitchers, the strength of its team.
