Tennessee concluded the regular season by winning its first series at South Carolina since 2006. The Vols won their fifth series rubber match of SEC play while picking up their eighth SEC series win.
Let’s bookend Tennessee’s best regular season in 25 years while taking a look ahead to the SEC Tournament.
Three Observations
1 —Tennessee wins SEC East for first time since 1997— Despite a series win over a top 25 South Carolina team, it appeared Tennessee hadn’t done enough to secure its first SEC East title in 24 years.
Vanderbilt had one a pair of tight games over Kentucky to open the weekend series and after the Wildcats jumped out to an early lead on Saturday for the third straight game, Vanderbilt took control again, taking a 4-2 lead into the ninth inning.
Then down to its last strike, Kentucky’s Coltyn Kessler hit a go-ahead three-run home run over the right field wall. Two at-bats later Jake Plastiac went deep and Kentucky would hold on to win 7-5. The win put Vanderbilt at 19-10 in SEC play and half a game behind Tennessee (20-10) securing the division title and two seed in next week’s SEC
Tournament for the Vols.
The division title bookends Tennessee’s best regular season since 1995 when the Vols went 43-13 (22-8 SEC).
In the 10 years prior to Tony Vitello’s arrival in Knoxville, Tennessee won 10 SEC games just four times and didn’t finish .500 in the league once.
It’s truly been a remarkable season for Tennessee as Vitello has his program poised to host a super regional in just his fourth season, a year after having COVID-19 end a more talented team’s season and three months after losing UT’s most talented pitcher Jackson Leath to a season ending hamstring injury.
The story of this season hasn’t been finished yet and you never take anything for granted— ask the 2019 Georgia team that was a No. 4 national seed and lost its own regional— but Tennessee is in a great spot to play deep in the postseason for the first time in a long time.
2 —Bottom of the lineup carries the load— It wasn’t a good weekend for the top hitters in Tennessee’s lineup, especially Liam Spence and Drew Gilbert, but Tennessee once again showed that the depth of its lineup is its best strength.
The top five batters in Tennessee’s lineup combined for 12 hits and five RBIs in Columbia. The bottom four batters combined for 16 hits and 12 RBIs.
Luc Lipcius was Tennessee’s best hitter on the weekend going 5-for-11 at the plate while flashing his power with two home runs, one of which left Founders Park completely.
Designated hitter Pete Derkay continued his theme of being great or bad for the whole weekend, looking like a seasoned veteran hitter in Columbia, going 5-of-10 at the plate with two doubles and a walk.
Hitting in the nine spot, catcher Connor Pavolony had another great weekend, going 3-for-9 at the plate with two walks and the biggest hit of the weekend, a three-run line drive homer in Saturday’s series finale.
Pavolony has been on a tear since returning from injury against Arkansas, hitting 7-of-16 (.438) with seven RBIs and two walks.
If Tennessee wants to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament they need more from the top of its lineup— more on that below— but the Vols lineup depth is the reason it has one of the SEC’s best offenses and is the biggest difference between this year’s team and the 2019 team that won 40 games and returned to the NCAA Tournament.
3 —Vols starting rotation finishes a strong regular season— Tennessee’s starting pitching doesn’t have the big names or top end arm that some SEC teams have but the Vols starting rotation has been as consistent as any and ended the regular season on that note.
Tennessee is the only team in the SEC that started the same three pitchers every single weekend and the Vols’ trio of Chad Dallas, Will Heflin and Blade Tidwell were all good and each had a conference ERA between 4.08 and 4.57. Even more impressive was the group’s consistency and longevity. Heflin averaged just under 4.2 innings per
outing while Tidwell averaged 5.2 innings and Dallas averaged 6.1 innings.
On the final weekend of the regular season, Tennessee’s starters all turned in strong outings.
Dallas set the tone with a 7.2 inning outing, his longest of the season, eating outs while preserving a large UT lead. The redshirt-junior gave up four earned runs but it was on just four hits—two back-to-back at-bats with a single and home run— while striking
out eight and earning his ninth win of the season.
Heflin wasn’t as sharp as the week before against Arkansas but still left the game with one out in the fifth inning and Tennessee leading 2-0. However, the two runs he left on base would come home on a Brady Allen three-run home run and Heflin would earn the loss. Still, the redshirt senior lefty has consistently put Tennessee in a spot to win and his 4.08 conference ERA is the best of UT’s three starters.
Tidwell ended up allowing four earned runs in Saturday's series rubber match as things escalated for him in the eighth inning and he gave up one run and left two runners on base that would come home. Still, the freshman looked elite the first seven innings, allowing just one run and three hits.
Tidwell hit a rough patch in the middle of conference play but in his last four starts he’s posted a 2.76 ERA in 26.1 innings. If Vitello didn’t send him Tidwell out for the eighth inning the last two weeks that ERA would be 1.38. Obviously those numbers count and you have to finish games strong but Tidwell has been dominant for the majority of the last four weeks.
Consistency has been the strength of Tennessee’s weekend rotation all season and all three pitchers seem to be getting better as the year progresses. If you’re Tony Vitello and Frank Anderson you have to feel great about your starting pitching entering postseason play.
Two Questions
1. Can Spence and Gilbert break out of recent slump?
Liam Spence had been the most consistent hitter in the SEC for most of the season and Drew Gilbert won SEC Newcomer of the Week twice in the last month but the last two weekends the Vols’ leadoff and cleanup hitter have struggled.
Spence wasn’t his usual self against Arkansas but wasn’t horrible going 3-for-13 with a pair of walks. Against South Carolina, however, Spence struggled in a big way, losing his 54-game on-base streak Thursday while going a hitless 0-of-12 on the weekend.
If anyone deserves to have a bad weekend and not be doubted it’s Spence, the Australia native has been consistent every weekend, but the struggles on back-to-back weekends is certainly worth watching.
Gilbert was better than Spence but still struggled, going 2-of-13 at the plate with both hits being infield hits. Over the last two weekends, Gilbert is just 4-for-25 at the plate with no walks.
The sophomore outfielder consistently hit under the ball against South Carolina and popped out on a plethora of at-bats.
Tony Vitello hasn’t been very flexible with his lineup over the past month but I wonder if he does some tinkering before SEC play. Gilbert is struggling in the four-hole and doesn’t have a home run in SEC play since his walk off homer against LSU.
Jordan Beck, who’s been hitting in the seven hole the past few weeks, has broken out of his slump that moved him down the lineup and has the most home runs and RBIs on the team.
2. How does Vitello handle pitching in Hoover?
Tennessee heads to Hoover without much to play for besides pride and a chance to exorcise the program’s demons in the SEC Tournament over the last two decades.
Tennessee has likely secured a super regional host and top eight national bid ahead of the conference tournament, so how does Vitello handle his pitching in the SEC Tournament.
I think Vitello will play more aggressively than some of the SEC’s coaches in Hoover but that won’t come at the expense of any of Tennessee’s pitchers.
The first question is who will Tennessee start in its first game. With the Vols not playing until Wednesday, ace Chad Dallas could start the opener on six days of rest. That seems plausible unless Vitello and pitching coach Frank Anderson don’t want Dallas to throw on six days rest back-to-back weeks.
Where I think Tennessee could mix things up is starting Tidwell before Heflin. As stated above, the freshman pitcher is in a groove and it seems unlikely the Vols would want to mix up the rhythm he’s had by giving him two weeks rest before the regional.
Overall, I would expect to see less use from Sean Hunley and Redmond Walsh out of the bullpen. The SEC Tournament takes a lot of innings out of a pitching staff and can really tax a bullpen.
This week should be a good last opportunity for Tennessee to solidify the options in the back half of its bullpen and for lesser used options like Mark McLaughlin, Elijah Pleasants, Jason Rackers and Will Mabrey to see high leverage situations before the NCAA Tournament.
One Prediction
Tennessee makes it to Saturday in SEC Tournament
The Vols head to Hoover as the tournament’s No. 2 seed and already into the eight team double elimination part of the tournament.
Tennessee’s first game will be against the winner of No. 7 South Carolina and No. 10 Alabama. The other three teams on Tennessee’s side of the bracket are No. 3 Mississippi State, No. 6 Florida and No. 11 Kentucky.
The Vols need two wins to advance to Saturday’s semifinal and three wins to advance to the one game SEC Championship on Sunday.
I think Tennessee turns in a strong showing in Hoover, wins its first SEC Tournament game since 2007, makes it to the semi finals on Saturday before running out of pitching and gas.
