Can Tennessee's offense buck history, avoid regression with losses at WR?
In the last few weeks, Jarrett Guarantano has taken to social media with multiple “unfinished business” tweets.
Tennessee’s redshirt senior quarterback is looking to capitalize on his role in the team’s six-game winning streak to end the 2019, hoping to lead the Vols to even greater heights this fall.
In a message released last Friday, Guarantano outlined his lofty goals — everything in between seeking general consistency and leading Tennessee to the SEC Championship. The veteran quarterback clearly isn’t looking over his shoulder for 5-star signee Harrison Bailey — even if many folks are already drumming up a potential quarterback controversy.
No, instead Guarantano may have something more pertinent to truly worry about.
While dreamin’ big is great, if Guarantano is going to finish his final ride on Rocky Top with a memorable campaign, he’s going to need an inexperienced collection of playmakers to buck a recent historical trend.
Raw talent is not an issue in Tennessee’s receiver room.
On National Signing Day, head coach Jeremy Pruitt was almost giddy rattling off the slew of attributes and accomplishments from his latest wideout signees.
Pruitt deemed Tennessee’s reinforcements at receiver — a group that included four signees plus Southern Cal grad transfer Velus Jones that posses a combination of speed, freakish explosiveness and versatility— as one of the best hauls in the country.
“I think this is one of the best wide receiver groups in the country,” Pruitt said. “It’s one of the best groups I’ve been around when you talk about potential and speed.”
It’s a nice collection of new toys for Guarantano to work with, but the unit’s overall lack of experience could ultimately hold back his “unfinished business” — and the offense as a whole in 2020.
Tennessee is totally rebooting its receiver room without Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway and others, and the Vols’ ability to overcome this obstacle could be the difference between making another leap in Year 3 versus stagnating — or worse.
Jennings and Callaway accounted for 56% of the team’s receiving yardage in 2019 — and 74% of Tennessee’s receiving touchdowns. Jennings led the nation in avoided tackles (30), and nearly half his yards (474 of 969) came after the catch. If you add in departed seniors Dominick Wood-Anderson (268 yards, one score) and Tyler Byrd (66 yards, one touchdown), Tennessee must replace 69% of its receiving production in 2019 — and 16 of 19 touchdowns.
That’s some serious production gone from Rocky Top, and a bad sign for the offense’s potential growth this fall.
Yes, Tennessee returns a veteran quarterback, its entire tailback room and a deep offensive line, but historically, data suggests the percentage of returning receiving yards is actually the best indicator for how successful an offense will be the next season.
Just ask ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
The stat savant who invented S&P+ (now SP+) figured out (through years of tinkering and observation) that returning receiving yards weighed more heavily than returning OL starts or rushing yards. Most interestingly, it actually carries the same weight as a returning quarterback behind center.
His explanation is fairly simple, too: “With more data, the offensive line correlations have begun to grow stronger, which makes sense, but the conclusion remains: continuity in the passing game matters a hell of a lot.”
A year ago, Tennessee was a preseason darling of the analytics community because it led all Power 5 teams in returning production offensively at 91% — including 99% of its receiving production back with only Eli Wolf and Madre London’s combined 35 yards gone. The Vols ranked 26th overall in Connelly’s preseason SP+ rankings and he predicted a subtle jump from Tennessee offensively because of Jarrett Guarantano’s familiarity with a veteran wideout room.
Check.
While the overall unit wasn’t dynamite in Jim Chaney’s first season as the playcaller, the Vols did improve in nearly every offensive category — points per game, yards per play, 3rd downs, explosiveness — outside of the red zone. Jennings and Callaway were unquestionably the backbone of the offense, too.
Similarly, Connelly predicted big offensive jumps from LSU (CHECK), Utah (check), Ohio State (check) and Florida (check) because of each program’s strong returning receiving production.
On the flip side, Georgia, which returned just 24% of its receiving yardage in 2019 but had its starting quarterback, star tailback and deep offensive line all back, saw its offense regress from No. 7 nationally in yards per play (7.05) to 46th in the country (6.08) with an offense that lost four pass catchers to the NFL.
That’s a bad sign for the Vols.
A better comp for Tennessee though might actually be 2019 Stanford.
Last year, the Cardinal returned a veteran starting quarterback — an all-conference performer to boot — and multiple offensive lineman from a solid but hardly dynamic offense in 2018 — one that ranked No. 34 nationally in yards per play but averaged just 28 points per game. But they no longer had the services of their deep receiver corp (headlined by JJ Arcega-Whiteside and three other departed pass catchers) that combined for 170 receptions and 18 touchdowns — 74% of the team’s receiving production.
The offense subsequently tanked in 2019.
Stanford finished the year averaging just 21.7 points per game and dipped to 81st in yards per play. Can the Vols avoid a similar pitfall this year? Can they buck recent Tennessee history?
In the last decade, Tennessee’s offense has regressed — no matter who was at quarterback — when the returning receiving production dipped below 50%.
The correlation is pretty clear.
2011 - 38% (yards per play down from 5.72 to 5.04)
2012 - 58% (yards per play up to 6.42)
2013 - 21% (yards per play down to 5.27)
2014 - 89% (yards per play down to 4.93)
2015 - 93% (yards per play up to 5.56)
2016 - 74% (yards per play up to 6.44)
2017 - 45% (yards per play down to 4.77)
2018 - 63% (yards per play up to 5.46)
2019 - 99% (yards per play up to 5.79)
2020 - 31% (???)
The one outlier season was 2014, when the Vols returned a major chunk of their receiving room but still had a terrible offense.
According to Connelly, Tennessee’s offense ranks 59th nationally in overall returning offensive production for 2020, but its 31% returning receiving yardage is the program’s fewest since 2013 — and easily the second-lowest in the last 10 years.
The quarterback situation is obviously different, but the losses of Justin Hunter, Cordarelle Patterson, Mychal Rivera and Zach Rodgers are on par with what the Vols must replace this fall.
Josh Palmer returns as the team’s top target (37 catches for 457 yards), but he’s never been a No. 1 option. Tennessee’s top returning tight end, blocking extraordinaire Austin Pope, caught all of four balls last season.
Again, there’s not a talent deficiency in Tennessee’s receiver room, especially with the incoming class of Jimmy Callaway, Jalin Hyatt, Dee Beckwith and Malachi Wideman, but none of the freshman are currently on campus, so building any continuity with Guarantano must wait until the summer.
That’s why this spring is paramount for those already on campus.
The Vols need Ramel Keyton (four catches for 104 yards) to make a sophomore leap and build a quick connection with Guarantano. They need Deangelo Gibbs to emerge as a productive option after sitting out the 2019 season. They need Brandon Johnson to climb his way back into the rotation and become a true playmaker and at least one of the newcomers to seriously contribute.
Perhaps then, the unit can buck recent history and avoid a regression.
But the data suggests there will be hiccups. With an inexperienced group, the timing won’t be as crisp. More wrong routes will be run. Separation could be a problem sometimes.
Guarantano referred to parts of last season as “definitely very challenging,” but if his pass catchers aren’t ready for primetime he could have similar feelings in 2020 — and his unfinished business might remain just that.