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Published Sep 23, 2024
ESPN's FPI projects Vols as near playoff lock, one of top title contenders
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Ryan Sylvia  •  VolReport
Assistant Managing Editor
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@RyanTSylvia

Tennessee football is off to a 4-0 start and has moved up to No. 5 in the AP Poll.

Along with the building hype, ESPN's 'Football Power Index' model reflects the successful start to the season.

Here's how it ranks and projects the Vols.

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Power Index

After Tennessee's hot start, the Vols have surged up to the No. 4 team in the country heading into the game against Oklahoma. However, after the 25-15 win, Tennessee dropped a spot back to No. 5 after trading spots with Georgia.

The Vols are given a 23.8 FPI rating which is the fourth-highest in the SEC behind Texas, Alabama and Georgia. Ohio State is the only out-of-conference team ahead of Tennessee at No. 3.

Projections

ESPN's FPI projects Tennessee to go 10.5-1.8. A 10 win floor would likely place the Vols in the playoffs which is suggested by the 80.6% chance FPI gives Tennessee to make the 12-team dance.

To reach the six-win mark to make a bowl game, FPI gives the Vols a 100% chance. To win the SEC, it gives them a 13.8% chance. This is the fourth-highest mark in the conference behind Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss.

To win out the rest of the schedule, FPI gives Tennessee a 7.0% chance. To appear in the national title game, it is a 17.8% chance. This is the fourth-best in the country behind Texas, Alabama and Ohio State.

To be the last team standing and win the national title, FPI gives the Vols a 9.2 chance. This is also the fourth-best mark once again behind the Longhorns, Crimson Tide and Buckeyes.

Strength of Record

In strength of record, ESPN lists Tennessee as the second-best in the country. The only team ahead of the Vols is Georgia. This metric has previously been linked to what the College Football Playoff Committee has ultimately decided in its rankings.

Tennessee's strength of schedule is No. 53 in the country. This is the ninth-best in the conference.

Efficiencies 

On a 0-100 scale, ESPN has Tennessee as a 96.9 efficiency which is the best mark in the country. Offensively, it is at 79.2 which is the 16th-best in the country. The defense is at 98.9 which is the best.

Special teams is given a 61.6 efficiency which ranks 41st.

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