As the Celtics and Mavericks prepare for game two of the NBA Finals on Sunday night, the 2024 draft is inching closer.
This means Tennessee basketball star Dalton Knecht is also nearing his projected lottery selection to begin his NBA career.
ESPN has put together a simulator for the draft that uses its NBA Draft Day Predictor to simulate the event with differing results based off analytics for each sim.
I ran this simulation 50 times to see where Knecht would land. Here's what happened.
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RESULTS
Mean
First, we'll take a look at the average selection spot for Knecht. He was picked as high as six and as low as 13. With a healthy amount of sample sizes in between, he is projected to land just inside the top 10.
MEAN: Pick 9.02
Median
Next, we'll look at the median. This takes a look at the midpoint of our data when put in order. This puts less weight on outliers such as the one time the simulation had him fall to the 13th pick.
MEDIAN: Pick 9 - Grizzlies
Mode
Lastly, we'll look at the mode. This takes into account the situation that occurred the most. It's as simple as that. Out of the 50 simulations, which team selected Knecht more than the others?
MODE: Pick 8 - Spurs
Thoughts
Of course, ESPN's simulator isn't perfect, but it does paint a picture of what is likely to happen come draft night.
Take the results as you will, but it did show a strong leaning toward Knecht being picked in either the No. 8 or 9 slots. The first would have him join reigning rookie of the year Victor Wembanyama while the second would pair him up with Ja Morant and an in-state Grizzlies team hoping to make a run at a title. Either situation would be a nice fit for Knecht as he projects as a floor spacer with still mostly raw defensive abilities.
The ceiling in the projections was going No. 6 to the Hornets. While this is unlikely and happened just 6% of the time, it would pair him up with former Vol Grant Williams. Charlotte isn't necessarily in a spot to contend next year, but do have a bunch of young talent.
The floor in the projections was No. 13 to the Kings. While this landing spot would be solid with Sacramento boasting a nice team, it is unlikely he'll fall this far as it happened just once. At pick 12, the Thunder didn't let him slide any further in seven of the eight sims that he came across their board.
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