LEXINGTON, Ky. — The NCAA Tournament begins today.
This includes Tennessee basketball's bout with Wofford to open up the Vols' run.
Here are our predictions for how March Madness will go this year
TALK ABOUT IT IN THE ROCKY TOP FORUM
How far is Tennessee going?
Ryan: Elite Eight
Tennessee's ceiling is to win the win the national title. The Vols have the experience and pieces to go all the way or at least reach their first Final Four.
However, right now I see Tennessee getting cut just short for the second-straight season. While the bracket unfolds in an advantageous way, I think either 1-seed Houston or 8-seed Gonzaga would be tough matchups.
If it's 4-seed Purdue or 5-seed Clemson for a trip to the Final Four, I'd like the Vols odds, but I can't see that being the case. Instead, a third-ever Elite Eight is where I'll settle.
Noah: Elite Eight
Tennessee missed out on the fourth No. 1 seed, but ended up with one of the better draws of the tournament.
The Vols have a very manageable path to get back to their second-straight Elite Eight and the third in program history, not to mention the favorable proximity to Knoxville in Lexington and Indianapolis in the second weekend. Tennessee gets by an improved and 6-seed Illinois team in the Sweet 16 in what would be the second match up between the two teams this season, but 1-seed Houston I think will be too much for the Vols to reach their first-ever Final Four.
Shayne: Elite Eight
This Tennessee team has a very fortunate draw as a two seed. It is March after all, but the Vols should be able to take care of business to get to the Sweet 16.
In my opinion, Kentucky would be the opponent there. It is tough for a team to beat someone three times in a season, especially as banged up as the Wildcats are. I don’t see this team getting through Houston or Clemson, however, in the Elite Eight.
What's the Vols' key to success?
Ryan: Get a consistent Chaz Lanier
Tennessee goes from great to elite when one of its players is on. When Chaz Lanier gets going, the Vols are nearly an impossible team to beat.
This is what we saw in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee used a great start from Lanier to beat Texas and another nice game to beat Auburn. However, when he couldn't get it to fall at the same clip in the finals, the Vols fell to Florida.
If Lanier can not only get a good number of shots to fall, but do it throughout a game, that could be what lifts Tennessee to history.
Noah: Win the boards
Tennessee was bullied on the glass in its loss to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, and struggled there in a late-season loss to Ole Miss.
The Vols are good rebounding team, ranking top 40 nationally in rebounds per game with 36.6. Tennessee was out-rebounded and out-scored in the paint in five of its seven losses, with the only two exceptions being Kentucky, which shot 50% from deep in both games. For the Vols to be successful, it will need the most out of its bigs in Felix Okpara, Igor Milicic Jr. and Cade Phillips off of the bench.
Shayne: Get two guards scoring, don't get into foul trouble, defense
The keys for this Vols team are pretty simple. Two guards have to be scoring the ball, whether that’s Zakai Zeigler, Lanier, and/or Jordan Gainey.
Another obvious one is to avoid foul trouble. With nine scholarship players and a 7-8 man rotation that lacks depth in the post, avoiding foul trouble down low and to Zeigler will be essential.
Lastly, play consistent off ball defense. This team falls asleep on defense off ball (outside of Zeigler and Mashack) far more than is typical for a Rick Barnes team. Eliminating those easy buckets and offensive rebound chances for the opposition will be crucial in close games.
Who will win the title?
Ryan: Duke
Cooper Flagg really looks like a generational prospect. The all but selected No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NBA draft is coming off an injury, but should be able to go for the NCAA Tournament.
However, with Flagg out, we got to see what is around him on Duke. The Blue Devils' surrounding pieces looked the part and that gives me optimism they can go the distance.
Right now, my Final Four is Auburn beating Texas Tech and Duke beating Houston.
Noah: Florida
Florida hasn't lost a game since Feb. 25 at Georgia. The Gators have won six-straight since, including triumphs of Alabama, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Tennessee in the SEC Tournament title.
But Florida arguably has the toughest past of any No. 1 seed with potential match ups against UConn, Memphis, Maryland and St. John's in front of it. It's hard to imagine that the Gators winning it all would mean that they will have won 13 consecutive games. Depth gives them a massive edge, though as the depleted Vols learned last Sunday. Their frontcourt and backcourt combination on both ends of the floor is good enough to make a run all of the way to the Final Four and beyond.
Shayne: Florida
I actually had Maryland upsetting the Gators originally and that shows how open this tournament truly is. However, when you look at consistent stats, one is easy to remember.
Since 2004, every single national champion has been ranked in the top 12 in the week six AP Poll. That would include Tennessee and would eliminate Houston if you’re looking at the Midwest Region. When you look at other teams, Duke is very, very young and still has some question marks. Auburn has been cold as of late and the emotion they play with and over-reliance on a big man could cost them.
At the end of the day, Florida is playing the best basketball in the country right now and with versatile pieces that would be focal points anywhere else, this team can match up with anyone and run every single game how they want to as evidenced by the SEC Tournament Championship.
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