Jeremy Pruitt says his team is getting better (and I believe they are). He also said Wednesday night that it’s time his team’s improvement show up on Saturday’s. With Mississippi State coming to town, the time is now.

State is more experienced in both lines of scrimmage. They run the football better. Their quarterbacks legs are a huge part of their run game and Kylin Hill is the most underrated back in the SEC. Tennessee must tackle better than they have all year and they must find a way to generate negative plays.

Offensively, there are opportunities for the Vols as State’s defense has given up yards. The Bulldogs should be at full defensive strength which definitely makes them better than what everyone saw against Auburn. Tennessee can’t afford to have turnovers and self-inflicted wounds. A clean game gives the Vols a real shot at winning.

State is also coming off an open date which is a real advantage for them against a Vol team that played in their most physical game of the year. This feels like it should be a State win, but somehow I think Tennessee finally finds a way.

Tennessee 24, Mississippi State 21

This has always been the game of the year for me. It’s just got different meaning at 1-4. So what can Tennessee do this week to continue to improve and find the win column? My worry for Tennessee is the one guy that gives them juice on offense. Was the first half last week the exception or the rule? If it’s the latter then Tennessee could be set up to make a run late in the year. If he can produce anything like he did last week then the Vols very well could swing this one in their favor.

Mississippi State is going to run it and run it and then run it some more. The Vols have shown a few flashes at stopping the run but they have also been gashed more times than I can count.

The other factor is Bob Shoop, who will be highly motivated in this game and should be at full strength on defense for this one.

Does Maurer have it again this week? I’m going to say he falls back down to earth a little bit but the defense forces field goals and the crowd is disruptive.

Tennessee 24, State 20

Mississippi State is not a good football team. After see three defensive studs got drafted in the first round and losing bulldozing quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, Joe Moorehead’s program has taken a step back in Year 2. And yet, the Bulldogs are facing a Tennessee team with even more uncertainty. The Vols are the only Power 5 school without a win over a FBS program. Rutgers has one. So does Oregon State, Kansas and Vandy. But not Tennessee.

Can it snap the streak Saturday?

Maybe.

This is definitely a backs-against-the-wall type game for the Vols. The Bulldogs are vulnerable (cloudy suspensions, rumors surrounding the head coach bolting) and UT showed hints of hope last weekend.

But the Vols still lost by four touchdowns, and a trip to Alabama looms next weekend. Jeremy Pruitt sees progress in his football team, but fans want to start seeing that translate into wins. Same for recruits.

Saturday is a great opportunity, especially if Tennessee wants to maintain any hope of bowl eligibility.

The Bulldogs are bad defensively (No. 13 in the SEC), they can’t throw it (last in the conference) and are iffy on special teams.

The question is can Tennessee capitalize?

We haven’t seen the Vols play a four-quarter game since Kentucky … last November. While MSU rarely challenges defenses vertically, stopping the Bulldogs’ run game will be a big uphill battle for a Vols defense that currently trusts just two inside linebackers. Bob Shoops is surely to come in here very motivated, too.

The line surprised me here, as I don’t believe this MSU team should be giving nearly a touchdown on the road, but then again, if you bet the Vols against the spread (as a ‘dog or favorite) in Neyland Stadium over the last decade you’d owe Vegas your house.

Mississippi State 27, Tennessee 23

I really want to pick Tennessee here because I think the Vols are going to show up and play well. I think they’ll build off the offensive success they had in the first half against Georgia and do some positive things on that side of the ball. I like what Brian Maurer is bringing to the table at quarterback and I think he’ll show improvement this week against a Mississippi State defense that isn’t that dynamic.

What’s holding me back is the Vols’ front-seven matching up against a solid ground game and Tennessee’s own lack of success in running the football. Maybe I’m being mis-led by how much Tennessee has struggled to move the ball against two of the best rushing defenses in the SEC to kick off conference play. I’m aware that’s a real possibility and maybe they find something this week against a Bulldog defense that is far short of what they faced against Florida and Georgia.

Tennessee hasn’t been able to run the football against SEC teams with any consistency for more than a year now and I’m just not convinced that suddenly changes on Saturday.

My fear for the Vols is that once again we see an opposing offense control the clock, consistently put itself in manageable third downs, just grind down the Vols’ defense and wear on them in the second half.

Their own lack of success in running the ball has led to a huge discrepancy in time of possession in the first two SEC games (+10 minutes in both contests), which has been a recipe for disaster for the defense. I’m not sure that changes Saturday.

I think Maurer and the receivers will make some plays, but will it be enough? Right now I don’t think so.

Mississippi State 30, Tennessee 27