Published Dec 20, 2024
VolReport Staff Picks: 9-seed Tennessee at 8-seed Ohio State
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Ryan Sylvia  •  VolReport
Assistant Managing Editor
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Tennessee and Ohio State are set to meet inside Ohio Stadium on Saturday.

Before the matchup, the VolReport staff gives their picks for how things will shape up on the field.

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SCORE

Ryan: 27-24, Ohio State

This game feels like such a coin flip. If it was played at a neutral field 100 times, it might be won 50 times by both teams. With the game being played in Columbus and Josh Heupel's teams not having a great track record in big road games, I'll give the slight edge to Ohio State.

Would I be surprised if Tennessee won? Of course not. But for now, I give the edge to the home team in a game that shouldn't see either team going over 30 points.

Noah: 24-17, Vols

Like pretty much everyone else, I felt like this was tough draw for Tennessee (and it still is) to open probably the toughest path to the national championship. But as kickoff gets closer, I like the Vols to keep their season alive.

Tennessee's defensive front should be able to take advantage of Ohio State's patch work offensive line and take some pressure off of the secondary by not giving Will Howard a lot of time to throw. The Vols' offense--most notably Nico Iamaleava--showed improvement over the last half of the regular season and will need to continue that trend.

Dale: 21-17, Vols

So much can be said or analyzed about this game, but in most predictions, Ohio State is expected to win, so the pressure is more on the Buckeyes.

The weather isn't going to be the best, but I think it matches well with this year's version of the Tennessee offense, where they'd like to control the line of scrimmage and run the ball very successfully. The Vols' defense may very well be the difference maker in this game.

BOLD PREDICTION

Ryan: James Pearce Jr. has two or more sacks

James Pearce Jr. has had a great season with Tennessee even if his counting stats don't necessarily show it. He's consistently found his way to the quarterback in SEC play, though, and I think he could continue that on Saturday. Look for him to get home at least twice to bring down Will Howard.

Noah: Mike Matthews has breakout game

I could file this one under "X-factor," but Joey Halzle said earlier this week that Tennessee is counting on the five-star prospect-turned-freshman wide receiver to have some sort of impact on Saturday with a room running thin on depth.

With some transfer portal losses over the last month, Mike Matthews will take advantage of a bigger role. He has shown flashes and had a strong outing in the Vols' 36-23 win over Vanderbilt.

Dale: Dylan Sampson rushes for 150 or more yards

If the weather is anything that is expected, it will be a cold night, which does impact how a game can be called. That's when the Vols will turn to one of their leaders and do what has helped them get this far. Run the ball with Dylan Sampson.

I expect Nico Iamaleava to hit about two or three intermediate to deep shots to loosen the defense, and if that happens, Sampson could have a big night.

X-FACTOR

Ryan: Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Tennessee will primarily rely on the run game to get things going on offense. However, splash plays and a consistent threat through the air will be key to opening that up. This is where Dont'e Thornton Jr. will need to come up big. Like against Vanderbilt, I'd love to see a deep shot early to help loosen up the back end and bring underneath throws and the run game more into play.

Noah: Nico Iamaleava

I listed Nico Iamaleava as my X-factor for the Vanderbilt game because it was set up for the kind of game where the Vols would need to lean on their once prize recruit and now starting quarterback.

He delivered with arguably his best game yet and got the Vols to the playoff. Why change it? Tennessee will need a similar performance to move on to the quarterfinals and inch closer to the national title.

Dale: Offensive line

If the offensive line can protect the young quarterback and allow him to hit a few of those shots, it will open up the running lanes. At that point, the offensive line and the running backs can take the game over.

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