Vols must grow in the red zone

Going from five wins to eight wins in college football is no small feat. However, going from eight wins to 10 wins is more difficult coaches say, and history suggests as much.

For Tennessee fans, the expectation is to grow in 2020 — starting with even more wins coming off the program's finish to the 2019 season. To do that, the Vol offense will have to make a big jump in one key area — the red zone.

From 2018 to 2019, the offense grew in the transition from former coordinator Tyson Helton to Jim Chaney. Scoring was up 42 total points. The Vols had more rushing yards and passing yards. They possessed the ball more. Their third down conversion rate was better. The Vols had more plays of 20+ yards and fewer tackles for loss given up. And as a whole, the unit improved as the season progressed.

Across the board, Tennessee’s offensive numbers were up in basically in every category except turnovers and in the red zone.

In 2018, the Vols turned the ball over 16 times. Last year, they gave it away 20 times. The defense negated that deficiency by forcing four more turnovers in 2019, with the team's the turnover margin in Year 1 compared to Year 2 the same at +4. Obviously, that is a stat that must improve moving forward if the Vols are going to make that next jump and compete in the SEC East.

But for Tennessee's offense, the area that must improve the most is production in the red zone. Tennessee moved the ball better between the 20s last year. As noted, the Vols had more explosive plays, but inside the 20, the numbers were very underwhelming. In 2019, they scored just one more touchdown in the red zone compared to 2018 — despite making 13 more trips.

In the first year of Chaney’s offense in the Pruitt Era, the Vols were 37 of 47 in the red zone but only scored 23 touchdowns, finding the end zone in less their 50% of their trips inside the opponents 20 yard line.

Tennessee's scoring in the red zone ranked 92 nationally and 10th in the SEC. When it comes to touchdowns in the red zone in 2019, Tennessee's 49% was the lowest touchdown to red zone ratio in the SEC as the Vols were the only team below 50%.

The Vols also were careless with the football, turning it over 5 times (4 INT/1 fumble). A fifth interception was called back on a defensive penalty. Tennessee's offense also had four red zone penalties in 139 snaps.

To Tennessee's credit, they did improve in the red zone in their last six wins. Starting with the South Carolina game, Tennessee scored 13 touchdowns in their 23 trips (56% TD rate) and the Vols only threw one interception. In fact, in their last 23 trips they put up points 19 times (83%).

But even despite that late improvement the 2019, the numbers simply weren’t good enough to take the next steps.

Over the course of the next six months or so, the most discussed football topic and most often asked question about the 2020 Vols is going to be “Who’s is going to be the starting quarterback?”

Here’s a hint. The best quarterback in the red zone this spring and in August will be the starter. Tennessee’s quarterbacks completed a horrific 36% inside the 20-yard-line last season.

The quarterbacks went 20 of 55 for 181 yards, with 12 touchdowns, four interceptions and a notable fumble.

Simply stated, improved play under center is a must for this team in 2020, particularly in the red zone where the windows are smaller making timing and ball location a premium.

However,r with the departures of Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway throwing the ball anywhere on the field is going to have it’s challenges next year — particularly early in the season, but with Jennings’ physical nature and Callaway’s ability to high-point the ball, throwing in the red zone won’t be easy.

Of the Vols 12 red zone touchdown passes, Jennings and Callaway accounted for 10. Jennings had 7 scores in the red zone while Callaway had 3. Josh Palmer had a red zone TD at Kentucky and departing tight end Dominique Wood-Anderson had one against Vanderbilt.

So the answer is simply run it right? The Vols are bringing back their offensive line and running backs in 2020. But running it in the red zone is no small feat. With no deep third of the field to cover, safeties and linebackers crowd the box. Something all offenses battle, and it created problems for Tennessee in 2019.

Chaney ran the ball 77 times inside the 20 a year ago. The offense averaged nearly 3.1 yards a carry and rushed for 11 scores. Those numbers aren’t bad. But what was costly was the negative plays in the run game. Of the 77 snaps, 21 (27%) went for 0 or negative yards. Maybe that’s why Chaney called four straight passes inside the 10 on the Vols' opening possession against Indiana in the bowl game.

The reality is that moving the ball in the red zone is no easy feat for any team. From an offensive execution standpoint, units must limit mistakes and must have their best focus with smaller holes in the run game and smaller windows in the passing game.

If Tennessee is going to make another jump from Year 2 to Year 3 under Jeremy Pruitt, Jim Chaney’s challenge over the next six months is to improve his units biggest deficiency — red zone efficiency.