Published May 28, 2025
These analytics love Tennessee baseball's chances to go deep in tournament
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Ryan Sylvia  •  VolReport
Assistant Managing Editor
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Tennessee baseball gets its NCAA Tournament run started on Friday as it looks to get back to a fifth-straight super regional.

Standing in the way are a trio of teams, Wake Forest, Cincinnati and Miami (OH).

According to PEARatings, a website that uses stats to project results, the Vols have the second-best chance of any team in the country to survive the regional slate. They are only behind Arkansas, who they are ironically paired up with for a potential super regional.

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PEARatings gives Tennessee a 73.3% chance to advance through the regional. Wake Forest has the next best chance at 15.5%. Then, it's Cincinnati at 7.1% and Miami (OH) at 4.2%.

The only regional where PEARatings gives a non-host site the advantage is in Tallahassee. It has visiting Northeastern at 41% to advance over the host school, Florida State, at 36.7%.

The site also gave percentages for teams to advance further than the super regional round. The Vols have a 38.6% chance to make it back to the College World Series for a third-straight season according to the projection. This is the fifth-best of any team.

The leader to make it to the CWS is Arkansas, the team matched up with Tennessee in the super regional stage. Other teams with better odds than the Vols in the projection are LSU, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas.

To make the finals, Tennessee has a 15.9% chance in the projections. This is the second best of any team, once again behind the Razorbacks. To win the title, the Vols are at 9.7%, again, just behind Arkansas.

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Knoxville Regional schedule

The Vols will play their first game of the event with Miami (OH) on Friday at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Prior to that game, Wake Forest and Cincinnati will meet at 1 p.m. on ESPN+.

On Saturday, the pair of losers will meet in an elimination game at noon. The winners will play for a spot in the regional finals at 6 p.m. TV designations for both games are yet to be determined.

On Sunday, the winner of game three and loser of game four will meet in an elimination game at noon. The winner of that match will meet the team who already clinched the regional final at 6 p.m. TV designations for those games are also yet to be determined.

If it goes to a final winner-take-all game of the regional, it will be played on Monday. First pitch time and TV designations for that match are yet to be determined.

If the Vols can survive their regional, they are matched up with the Fayetteville Regional for the super regional stage. If Arkansas wins its regional as the No. 3 national seed, Tennessee would go on the road to play in Fayetteville for a spot in the College World Series. If the Razorbacks are upset, the Vols would host a super regional in Knoxville.

Super regionals are scheduled to be held from Friday, June 6, to Monday, June 9. The eight winners will advance to the CWS in Omaha.

In the CWS, it is a two-loss elimination format until just two teams remain. Those pair of teams will face off in a best-of-three series to crown a national champion. The CWS will begin on Friday, June 13. The final series will begin on Saturday, June 21, and be played in consecutive days until the winner is crowned.

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